Dr. Fauci: Earliest We’ll Be “Back to Normal” Is the End of 2021

A few weeks ago during the Q&A session after his lecture for MIT’s online biology class about the pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci shared his expert opinion on when things might return to “normal” in the US. Here was my paraphrased tweet about it:

With a very effective vaccine ready in Nov/Dec, distributed widely, and if lots of people take it (i.e. the best case scenario), the earliest we could return to “normal life” in the world is the end of 2021.

At the New Yorker Festival earlier in the week, Michael Specter asked him about a return to normalcy and Fauci elaborated a bit more on this timeline (starts ~10:22 in the video).

When are we gonna get back to something that closely resembles, or is in fact, normal as we knew it?

We’re already making doses, tens and hundreds of millions of doses to be ready, first at least, in graded numbers at the end of the year in November/December. By the time we get to April, we likely will have doses to be able to vaccinate anybody who needs to be vaccinated. But logistically by the time you get everybody vaccinated, it likely will not be until the third or even the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2021.

So let’s say we get a 70% effective vaccine, which I hope we will get, but only 60% of the people get vaccinated. There are going to be a lot of vulnerable people out there, which means that the vaccine will greatly help us to pull back a bit on the restrictions that we have now to maintain good public health, but it’s not going to eliminate things like mask wearing and avoiding crowds and things like that.

So I think we can approach normality, but I don’t think we’re going to be back to normal until the end of 2021. We may do better than that; I hope so but I don’t think so.

Leaving aside what “normal” might mean and who it actually applies to,1 there’s some good news and bad news in there. The good news is, they’re already producing doses of the vaccine to be ready if and when the phase 3 trials are successful. Ramping up production before the trials conclude isn’t usually done because it’s a waste of money if the trials fail, but these vaccines are so critical to saving lives that they’re spending that money to save time. That’s great news.

The bad news is that we’re not even halfway through the pandemic in the best case scenario. We’re going to be wearing masks in public for at least another year (and probably longer than that). Large gatherings of people (especially indoors) will continue to be problematic — you know: movie theaters, concerts, clubs, bars, restaurants, schools, and churches — and folks staying within small pods of trusted folks will likely be the safest course of action.

A change in national leadership in both the executive branch and Senate could change the outlook for the better. We could get some normalcy back even without a vaccine through measures like a national mask mandate/distribution, a real national testing & tracing effort, taking aerosol transmission seriously, and easing the economic pressure to “open back up” prematurely. We’re never going to do as well as Vietnam or Taiwan, but I’d settle for Greece or Norway.

  1. It’s America. If we know anything by now about this country, it’s that access to healthcare and economic opportunity is going to apply unevenly to the people who live here. For instance, it’s likely that Black & brown communities, which have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, may face difficulty in getting access to vaccines compared to wealthier, predominantly white communities.

Tags: Anthony Fauci   COVID-19   medicine   Michael Specter   science   USA   vaccines   video

The Life of an Artist in the Nordic Wilderness – Story 46

► Check out our new Art & Jewelry Webshop : https://jonnajintonsweden.com

I am so happy to finally be back with a new video again! I have missed you all so much! ♥

It’s been the most intense summer in my life. But we got a lot of work done, and sometimes that is needed. So in this video I share what I have been up to and where my focus have been.

A little summary from July all the way to today! I really hope you will enjoy this video!

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING! ♥

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► MUSIC

You can find all the songs I use here:

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Ancestors – Gavin Luke

Little Secret Self – River Foxcroft

May You Have – Bonnie Grace

Knight’s Templar – Adriel Fair

Memories of Sardinia – Franz Gordon

Patchwork – Ever So Blue

Morning Mist – Staffan Carlen

Taking Me High Taking Me Low – Johan Glossner

You Can Take Me High – Candelion

Time without end – Spectacles wallet and watch


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At capacity. A sharp increase in coronavirus cases leaves hospitals across Russia running out of beds

In Russia, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in new coronavirus cases, the number of available hospital beds for COVID-19 patients has decreased significantly, and patients undergoing diagnostics are waiting for hours to get CT scans. In a new report, the Russian business newspaper “Kommersant” breaks down how the second coronavirus wave is impacting the country’s hospitals, based on conversations with patients and their relatives, as well as official statements from the regional authorities.

In Russia, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in new coronavirus cases, the number of available hospital beds for COVID-19 patients has decreased significantly, and patients undergoing diagnostics are waiting for hours to get CT scans. In a new report, the Russian business newspaper “Kommersant” breaks down how the second coronavirus wave is impacting the country’s hospitals, based on conversations with patients and their relatives, as well as official statements from the regional authorities.

US Coronavirus: Half of US states are reporting increased Covid-19 cases and some leaders push new measures – CNN

Half of US states are reporting an uptick in new Covid-19 cases and some state leaders have sprung into action to help curb the spread of the virus. Wisconsin issued an emergency order Tuesday limiting public gatherings to no more than 25% of a room or building’s total occupancy, the governor’s office said. “We’re in a crisis right now and need to immediately change our behavior to save lives,” Gov. Tony Evers said in a statement.

Source: US Coronavirus: Half of US states are reporting increased Covid-19 cases and some leaders push new measures – CNN

EU Parliament President Sassoli in quarantine

Sassoli is the latest head of EU institutions to enter a precautionary quarantine. Last week, European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen said she would self-isolate for a week after attending a state council meeting in Portugal along with a person who later tested positive for Coronavirus. Similarly in September, EU Council President Charles Michel postponed a scheduled EU summit, after coming in contact with a member of his security guard who tested positive for the virus.

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European Parliament President, David Sassoli will enter quarantine for a second time, after coming in contact with a staff member who tested positive for COVID-19.

“I was recently in contact with a member of my staff who today tested positive for COVID-19,” Sassoli wrote in a Twitter post on Thursday afternoon. The EP President also said he is “fine” and has no symptoms.

“In accordance with the rules, I’ll be self-isolating for the required period to carry out the necessary checks,” he added.

In March Sassoli had decided to put himself into quarantine, as he had spent a weekend in Italy and the government’s emergency measures required to place entire Italy on lockdown to stem spread of COVID-19.

I was recently in contact with a member of my staff who today tested positive for COVID-19. I am fine and have no symptoms. In accordance with the rules, I’ll be self-isolating for the required period to carry out the necessary checks.

— David Sassoli (@EP_President) October 8, 2020

Sassoli is the latest head of EU institutions to enter a precautionary quarantine. Last week, European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen said she would self-isolate for a week after attending a state council meeting in Portugal along with a person who later tested positive for Coronavirus. Similarly in September, EU Council President Charles Michel postponed a scheduled EU summit, after coming in contact with a member of his security guard who tested positive for the virus.

 

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