Cincinnati ‘running out of time’ to control rising COVID-19 numbers before winter

The COVID-19 pandemic is “spiraling out of control” in southwest Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine said in a Friday afternoon visit to Lunken Airport. Local health departments have reported 3,334 new cases of the virus in the last two weeks; the lower left corner of the Ohio Department of Health’s county-by-county risk map is almost entirely red.

“We must get control of this now,” DeWine said, gesturing with a black mask in his left hand. “We’re running out of time.”

Source: Cincinnati ‘running out of time’ to control rising COVID-19 numbers before winter

Excess Deaths From Pandemic Higher Than Official Numbers

How many people have died in the US so far from the COVID-19 pandemic? It depends on how you count the numbers. The official count of US COVID-19 deaths is 214,000. This number is often reported as “at least” this amount, because this is a compilation of all deaths where COVID-19 was officially listed as a cause of death. Experts recognize that this is likely to be a gross underestimation, because people may die from the disease at home without ever being diagnosed.

In any such system, regardless of how careful you are, there are going to be false positives and false negatives. When it comes to the cause of death there are very specific coding guidelines. COVID-19 must have directly lead to the death of the individual. Laboratory confirmation is strongly encouraged, but doctors may code COVID-19 as a probable cause of, in their clinical judgement, the patient had COVID-19 and it fits the epidemiology, even if they did not get a test. When COVID-19 is severe enough to kill, it is a fairly recognizable clinical condition. This does open the door to other fatal viral respiratory infections to be coded as COVID, but these instances are likely to be rare.

States report their data differently. Some only report confirmed cases. Some report confirmed and probable. Some states get their numbers from death certificates, while others count deaths among diagnosed cases of COVID-19. Taking all of this into consideration, COVID-19 deaths are likely to be underestimated in the aggregate rather than overestimated. Some critics argue that allowing “probable” cases overestimates the total deaths from COVID, but if you look at the data state-by-state you will see that probable cases are small in number compared to confirmed. In Arizona, for example, probable cases are only about 5% of the total deaths reports, the vast majority of which are confirmed. So even in the very unlikely scenario that all probable cases are false positives, that only gives a 5% variance (and keep in mind, many states don’t report probable cases at all).

There is another way to get at the impact of the pandemic other than counting death certificates. Several researchers have looked at excess deaths during the pandemic, either regionally or nationally. The largest such study was just published in JAMA. The total number of deaths in the US is remarkably consistent year-to-year, so a dramatic change in this baseline must have a specific cause. The study found:

Between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 1,336,561 deaths occurred in the US, a 20% increase over expected deaths (1 ,111, 031 [95% CI, 1 110 364 to 1 111 697]).

That’s 225,530 excess deaths. However, only 67% of these excess deaths can be explained as official COVID-19 deaths. If we apply these ratios to the total pandemic, that means that there have been a total of 319,402 excess deaths total during the pandemic (214,000 is 67% of 319,402). This should put an end to any notion that the pandemic is a hoax or overblown or that the total deaths are somehow grossly overestimated. If anything, total COVID-19 deaths are likely underestimated.

Some of these uncounted excess deaths are likely to be missed cases of COVID-19, again most likely from people who died at home. Some are likely due to probable cases that are not reported in those states that only report confirmed cases. But this does not account for all the excess deaths. That data also shows that some of those deaths can be accounted for by increases in the baseline death rate from things like Alzheimer’s disease and heart disease. Such causes can be considered part of the disruption of normal health care. Some people have been delaying care or avoiding emergency departments for fear of catching COVID.

The authors warn that this disruption may cause excess deaths for years, from diabetics not taking care of themselves, disruptions in chemotherapy for cancer patients, and delays in testing such as mammograms. Another category of excess deaths is due to the emotional and economic stress caused by the pandemic, which has lead to an increase in suicides and overdoses.

The study also takes a more granular view of the data, looking state-by-state and showing that the excess deaths coincides with surges of reported cases of COVID-19, as we would expect if COVID was the primary cause.

What, then, is the death toll of the pandemic? Should we count deaths caused by the disruption in health care but not directly related to infection? There is no right or wrong answer here. We can say, neutrally, that the COVID-19 pandemic has directly caused at least 214,000 deaths, although this number is likely an underestimate. Further, it has caused another 100,000 deaths, some of which are likely to be uncounted direct deaths, but the rest are indirect deaths due to the disruptions caused by the pandemic.

Some may wish to focus on the excess deaths due to suicides and overdoses, arguing that these result from our reaction to the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself. This is reasonable, but we need to keep it in perspective. These deaths are a tiny percentage of total deaths. Further, the data also shows that the strongest predictor of deaths is the number of COVID cases. As one of the authors notes:

“We can’t prove causally that the early reopening of those states led to the summer surges. But it seems quite likely,” said Woolf. “And most models predict our country will have more excess deaths if states don’t take more assertive approaches in dealing with community spread. The enforcement of mask mandates and social distancing is really important if we are to avoid these surges and major loss of life.”

Of course we should fight the pandemic smartly and minimize unintended consequences. Mask mandates, for example, not only reduce spread of COVID they allow people to work and get out of the house. Shut downs should be a last resort, but they do work when necessary, and the alternative of letting the pandemic spread has proven the most deadly option.

The post Excess Deaths From Pandemic Higher Than Official Numbers first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.

Governor Abbott Surges State Resources To Amarillo, Lubbock To Support COVID-19 Response | Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbott

Governor Greg Abbott today announced that the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) and the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) have surged medical personnel, medical supplies, and personal protective equipment (PPE) to the Panhandle and South Plains areas to support hospitals in their COVID-19 response. These resources will be concentrated in hospitals in Amarillo, Lubbock and the surrounding areas. DSHS has deployed 171 medical personnel to these communities, and an additional 100 personnel will arrive by Sunday. DSHS has also deployed 100 IV pumps, 56 ventilators, and 25 oxygen concentrators to the region.

“As the Amarillo and Lubbock communities see a rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations, the State of Texas is providing support to hospitals throughout these two regions,” said Governor Abbott. “The additional medical personnel, supplies, and PPE surged to the Panhandle and South Plains will help these communities care for patients and contain the spread of this virus.”

Source: Governor Abbott Surges State Resources To Amarillo, Lubbock To Support COVID-19 Response | Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbott

NCDHHS: NCDHHS Reports Highest One-Day Increase of COVID-19 Cases

The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services is reporting the state’s highest one-day increase of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases to date with 2,684 new cases reported. The department is also reporting the second highest number of hospitalizations in the past 30 days, with 1,148 reported. As the numbers continue to move in the wrong direction on this key metric, it is more important than ever that all North Carolinians use the tools we have to slow the spread of the virus: wearing a face covering over your nose and mouth, waiting at least 6 feet from others and washing your hands often. Masks have been proven to slow the spread of COVID-19, especially if worn correctly and collectively. Whatever your reason, get behind the mask.

Source: NCDHHS: NCDHHS Reports Highest One-Day Increase of COVID-19 Cases

Yanomami mère et bébé, Amazonas, Venezuela

As Yanomami spokesman Davi Kopenawa says in the chapter “Metal Smoke” of his book “Falling from the Sky”: “Now the gold miners are making the forest stink with the fumes from their engines and the vapors of gold and mercury which they burn together. … It ends up making us sick. Its poison is formidable. We don’t know how to fight it. That’s why we’re so worried. … If the thought of white people does not change course, we fear it will kill us all, then poison them too. “

Barbara Crane Navarro

Comme le dit le porte-parole des Yanomami Davi Kopenawa dans le chapitre “La fumée du métal” de son livre “La chute du ciel”: “Maintenant, les mineurs d’or rendre la forêt puante avec les fumées de leurs moteurs et les vapeurs de l’or et du mercure qu’ils brûlent ensemble . … cela finit par nous rendre malades. Son poison est redoutable. Nous ne savons pas comment le combattre. C’est pourquoi nous sommes si inquiets. … Si la pensée des Blancs ne change pas de chemin, nous craignons qu’elle ne le fasse tuez-nous tous, puis empoisonnez-les aussi.”

La fièvre de l’or, COVID-19 et le génocide des Yanomami – actualisé

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Ex- GOP lawmaker charged with assaulting poll worker

“He was on one side, and I said, ‘Well, I’ll just go around you,’” Pendleton said. “So I went around, he jumped over in front of me about 3 feet (away) mouth to mouth. I pushed him back because I don’t want to get COVID-19.” Gary Sims, Wake County’s elections director, and Pat Gannon, a spokesman for the State Board of Elections, confirmed the incident had taken place. Sims said poll workers should never be faced with violence. “Nobody comes to work expecting to be assaulted,” Sims said. Law enforcement arrived after the polls opened and cited Pendleton with the Class 3 misdemeanor. He then left the early voting site. Pendleton said the officers who cited him compared his violation to “hunting without a hunting license.” The Wake County Sheriff’s Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the incident. Pendleton will not be permitted to serve as a poll observer for the rest of this election cycle, Gannon said. He plans to appeal the assault charge in court. The North Carolina Republican Party condemned Pendleton’s actions and expressed apologies on his behalf.

Source: Ex- GOP lawmaker charged with assaulting poll worker

Trump falsely accuses Ilhan Omar of entering the US illegally and marring her brother in wild rally speech | The Independent (sick and racist President)

Donald Trump falsely accused Ilhan Omar of entering the US illegally and marrying her own brother in a wild campaign speech.

The president launched another racist attack against the Minnesota congresswoman as he accused her of “hating” America during his latest rally in Ocala, Florida.

“If you look at the House with Pelosi, it’s like they hate Israel, and they believe in Omar who came in here and married her brother or something, and came in illegally,” he said.

“Come on Justice, let’s go Justice, Department of Justice.”

Source: Trump falsely accuses Ilhan Omar of entering the US illegally and marring her brother in wild rally speech | The Independent

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