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SSI: COVID Variant B.1.1.7 Now Dominant In Denmark – Increases Risk of Hospitalization 64%

 Denmark.png 

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In early January, in (SSI) Estimate Of COVID Variant B.1.1.7 Growth, Denmark’s Statens Serum Institut warned that if he epidemic curve could not be substantially slowed, the B.1.1.7 COVID variant would become the dominant COVID lineage in Denmark by the end of February. 

(excerpt)

It is the health authorities’ assessment that it is crucial to turn the epidemic curve around and get the contact number significantly below 1 in the coming weeks, so that the infection rates are as low as possible when cluster B.1.1.7 becomes the dominant virus in mid-February. As large parts of society have been shut down, it is expected that infection can occur to a greater extent in connection with gatherings inside and outside the home, and that tightening the assembly ban from 10 to 5 people in the public space is a necessary measure to prevent serious spread of infection.

In all but their best case scenario, they considered it likely that it was simply  a matter of `when’ . . . not `if‘ . . . variant B.1.1.7 becomes dominant in Denmark. 

Two weeks later, the UK released a NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7 that found  there is a realistic possibility that VOC B.1.1.7 was associated with an increased risk of death compared to non-VOC viruses. 

 They estimated the increased risk at that time to be about 30%.

Just two weeks ago, in an Updated NERVTAG Reportadditional UK studies reinforced the notion that B.1.1.7 likely carries somewhere between a 30%-70% increased risk of death.  

This combination of increased severity and infectivity has raised concerns that the recent gains made against the COVID pandemic could become short-lived should this variant continue its world tour.

Overnight Denmark’s SSI published new data showing that B.1.1.7 has become the dominant COVID lineage in Denmark and data suggesting that infection with this variant carries a 64% greater risk of hospitalization.

B.1.1.7 may lead to multiple admissions

As predicted by mathematical model calculations, B.1.1.7 has now been taken over as the most widespread variant in Denmark. Now, results from a Danish study show that B.1.1.7 also seems to carry a 64% greater risk of hospitalizations (95% safety interval 32-104%).


Last edited on February 24, 2021
Denmark%2BEpi%2BCurve.png

Due to greater infectivity, the proportion of those infected with the B.1.1.7 variant has been steadily growing and is today dominant in Denmark.

There is good reason to take the virus variant B.1.1.7 seriously. Calculations of the variant made by the expert group for mathematical modeling at the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) have since the turn of the year predicted that an undercurrent of infection with the more infectious variant would take over and drive the epidemic in Denmark during February.

Those predictions have proven to hold true. The proportion of people infected with B.1.1.7 increased from 4% in early January to 45% in the second week of February. And B.1.1.7 now accounts for over 60% of the total infection.

Now, the results of a registry-based study conducted by SSI show that people infected with B.1.1.7 have an estimated increased risk of hospitalization compared to people infected with other SARS-CoV-2 virus variants of 64% (95 safety range 32-104%).

“We do not know the explanation for the fact that B.1.1.7 increases the risk of being admitted. But our figures point in the same direction as several other studies from the UK, which show that B.1.1.7 may have more serious courses, ”says Tyra Grove Krause, Acting Technical Director at SSI.

Results agree with UK studies

On 11 February, the UK authorities published a report summarizing data from several studies suggesting that infection with B.1.1.7 may lead to more serious disease compared to other SARS-CoV-2 virus variants.

“It is important to emphasize that SARS-CoV-2, including B.1.1.7, in the vast majority of cases produces mild processes. In the study, 6% of the cases with B.1.1.7 were admitted. However, if the risk of hospitalization is greater for B.1.1.7, hospitals may become more congested as B.1.1.7 spreads more. ” says Tyra Grove Krause.

Vaccines are considered effective

A total of 35,887 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the period from January 1 to February 6 were included in the study. Samples from 23,057 (64%) individuals were sequenced throughout. Here, a virus genome was detected for 18,499 (80%). Among these, 2,155 (12%) were infected with B.1.1.7.

A total of 128 out of 2,155 B.1.1.7 cases were admitted. People infected with B.1.1.7 had an increased risk of hospitalization of 64% (95% confidence interval 32% -104%) compared to those infected with other virus variants, taking into account differences in age and time of sampling for B.1.1.7 cases and cases with other variants as well as a number of other factors.

“The results emphasize that we must continue to pay attention to preventing infection with SARS-CoV-2 in general in society until we have the vaccines spread to more people in the coming months. Fortunately, the international health authorities consider that the current COVID-19 vaccines are effective against B.1.1.7 “, says Tyra Grove Krause.

The Danish surveys have today been submitted to an international preprint server. This means that the study has not yet been reviewed by peers in peer-review or assumed in a scientific journal, but that the article will meanwhile be publicly available within a few days.

In January the CDC’s MMWR made a similar forecast for the United States, suggesting that B.1.1.7 could become dominant here by late March or April (see Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021).

As problematic as B.1.1.7 appears to be, the saving grace is that the current vaccines appear to be effective against it.  The more people that can be vaccinated now – before this variant becomes dominant – the better chance we have of blunting its impact.

Admittedly, there are other variants of concern (e.g. B.1.351, P.1, CAL.20C, etc.) that may not be as well controlled by current vaccines, which could begin to gain traction should B.1.1.7 recede. But for now, B.1.1.7 remain as our variant of most immediate concern. 

Finland STM & TFL Statement: COVID Infections/Hospitalizations Rising Significantly

After peaking in early-to-mid December, COVID cases in Finland dropped nearly 50% in early January, only to begin a steady rise over the past 6 weeks.

In the week ending February 15th, Finland reported its largest weekly (n=3278) case total since the pandemic began. A jump of nearly 20% over the previous week.

Finland remains one of the least affected European nations, but the recent trends are concerning, and today the Prime Minister Sanna Marin held a press conference announcing a 3-week lockdown – starting March 8th – that would close restaurants and require older students to return to remote learning.

Finland%2BEpi.png
 Finland – WHO Dashboard

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After peaking in early-to-mid December, COVID cases in Finland dropped nearly 50% in early January, only to begin a steady rise over the past 6 weeks. 

In the week ending February 15th, Finland reported its largest weekly (n=3278) case total since the pandemic began. A jump of nearly 20% over the previous week. 

Finland remains one of the least affected European nations, but the recent trends are concerning, and today the Prime Minister Sanna Marin held a press conference announcing a 3-week lockdown – starting March 8th – that would close restaurants and require older students to return to remote learning. 

Although the Finnish government websites have not updated their information, details are available in this Reuters report: Finland to tighten COVID-19 restrictions from March 8The Prime Minister also indicated she is prepared to declare a state of emergency if necessary. 

While many countries are looking at their falling COVID numbers and are exploring ways to reduce COVID restrictions in the weeks and months ahead, the spread of a more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant – which is also linked to increased severity – may derail those plans. 

Today the TFL (Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare) and Finland’s STM (Social and Health Ministry) released the following joint statement on the recent rise in cases. 

STM and THL inform
The number of coronavirus infections has risen significantly, with the need for hospitalization increasing

Social and health Ministry
2/25/2021 9.47 RELEASE

A total of more than 3,400 new coronavirus infections were detected in week 7, ie between 15 and 21 February 2021, which is clearly more than in the previous week. The incidence of cases across the country was 62 infections per 100,000 population, compared to 46 infections per 100,000 population in the previous week.


Working-age infections are most prevalent, especially among young adults. Of all cases, about 80 percent were found in those under 50 years of age and about 45 percent in those under 30 years of age. Those over 60 years of age accounted for about 9 percent of the cases diagnosed, and those over 70 years of age accounted for about 3 percent.

More than 11,000 people were quarantined in week 7. This is 2,700 more people than the previous week.

This information is reflected in the weekly monitoring report of the Department of Health and Welfare. Coronavirus monitoring (THL)


The situation remains the worst in the HUS area – extensive clusters of infection in many areas

The coronavirus epidemic situation has deteriorated in recent weeks, especially in the Helsinki and Uusimaa hospital districts. The incidence of the disease has also increased in nine other areas in the last two weeks. Incidence, on the other hand, decreased or remained the same in 11 hospital districts.

New cases have been reported both inside and outside known infection chains.

Mass exposures have been reported in several hospital districts, triggering chains of infection. The incidence of coronavirus cases has increased, for example, in Satakunta’s South Savo and South Karelia hospital districts and in Åland in week 7 compared to the previous week.

Some of the new chains of infection could possibly have been prevented by careful adherence to the recommendations and restrictions. Late application for the test has in some cases led to the emergence of extensive chains of infection.

During ski holidays, tourism can increase the likelihood of the disease spreading to areas where the disease situation is calmer.

Nationwide, the workload of hospital care has been increasing over the past week. The need for intensive care has also increased over the last couple of weeks, but the capacity of intensive care nationwide has not been threatened.

According to the data of 24 February 2021, there are 193 people in hospital nationwide. Of the patients, 86 are in specialist nursing wards, 72 in primary care wards and 35 in intensive care units. A week ago, there were a total of 132 coronary patients in hospital.

The number of deaths related to the coronavirus is slowly declining. At week 7, 14 were reported, and at weeks 5-6, 21 and 17, respectively.

Transformation viruses require effective control measures

To date, 690 cases of modified coronavirus have been reported in Finland. Of these, 660 are British virus variants.

The epidemic situation calls for very effective control of the spread of the virus in the coming weeks and months. Rapid and wide-ranging containment measures are also effective against the transformation virus.

Corona epidemic: regional situation, recommendations and constraints (THL)

The coronavirus is effectively transmitted, especially in prolonged close contact. Everyone can slow down the spread of the coronavirus by their own actions. It is also important to reduce close contacts in good health, and even in the case of mild symptoms suitable for coronavirus disease, a test should be applied immediately.

Coronavirus – Infection and Protection (THL)ns in a new tab

COVID-19 Rehab? How An LA Hospital Is Helping Hard-Hit Patients Recover From Longterm Effects Of The Coronavirus

Perez, a 57-year-old cook from Long Beach, California, could barely breathe when he was admitted on June 5 to Los Angeles County’s Harbor-UCLA Medical Center. He tested positive for covid-19 and spent three months in the intensive care unit, almost all of it hooked up to a ventilator with a tube down his throat. A different tube conducted nutrients into his stomach.

At a certain point, the doctors told his family that he wasn’t going to make it and that they should consider disconnecting the lifesaving equipment. But his 26-year-old daughter, Janeth Honorato Perez, one of three children, said no.

And so, on a bright February morning half a year later, here he was — an outpatient, slowly making his way on a walker around the perimeter of a high-ceilinged room at Rancho Los Amigos National Rehabilitation Center in Downey, one of L.A. County’s four public hospitals and the only one whose main mission is patient rehab.

Perez, who is 5-foot-5, had lost 72 pounds since falling ill. His l 60370ae661a57b000a816964-eight.jpg
Vicente Perez Castro walks around the room while a physical therapist intern times him. (Heidi de Marco/Kaiser Health News)

Our news is free on LAist. To make sure you get our coverage: Sign up for our daily coronavirus newsletter. To support our non-profit public service journalism: Donate Now.

By Bernard J. Wolfson | California Healthline


The twinkle in his eyes, the delight in his smile, the joyous way he moved his disease-withered frame. They all proclaimed a single, resounding message: Grateful to be alive!

“As my care team and my family tell me, ‘You were born again. You have to learn to live again,'” said Vicente Perez Castro. “I went through a very difficult time.”

Hell and back is more like it.

Perez, a 57-year-old cook from Long Beach, California, could barely breathe when he was admitted on June 5 to Los Angeles County’s Harbor-UCLA Medical Center. He tested positive for covid-19 and spent three months in the intensive care unit, almost all of it hooked up to a ventilator with a tube down his throat. A different tube conducted nutrients into his stomach.

At a certain point, the doctors told his family that he wasn’t going to make it and that they should consider disconnecting the lifesaving equipment. But his 26-year-old daughter, Janeth Honorato Perez, one of three children, said no.

And so, on a bright February morning half a year later, here he was — an outpatient, slowly making his way on a walker around the perimeter of a high-ceilinged room at Rancho Los Amigos National Rehabilitation Center in Downey, one of L.A. County’s four public hospitals and the only one whose main mission is patient rehab.

Perez, who is 5-foot-5, had lost 72 pounds since falling ill. His legs were unsteady, his breathing labored, as he plodded forward. But he kept moving for five or six minutes, “a huge improvement” from late last year, when he could walk only for 60 seconds, said Bradley Tirador, one of his physical therapists.

Rancho Los Amigos has an interdisciplinary team of physicians, therapists and speech pathologists who provide medical and mental health care, as well as physical, occupational and recreational therapy. It serves a population that has been disproportionately affected by the pandemic: 70% of its patients are Latino, as are 90% of its covid patients. Nearly everyone is either uninsured or on Medi-Cal, the government-run insurance program for people with low incomes.

Rancho is one of a growing number of medical centers across the country with a program specifically designed for patients suffering the symptoms that come in the wake of covid. Mount Sinai Health System’s Center for Post-Covid Care in New York City, which opened last May, was one of the first. Yale University, the University of Pennsylvania, UC Davis Health and, more recently, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles are among the health systems with similar offerings.

Rancho Los Amigos treats only patients recovering from severe illness and long intensive care unit stays. Many of the other post-covid centers also tend to those who had milder cases of covid, were not hospitalized and later experienced a multitude of diffuse, hard-to-diagnose but disabling symptoms — sometimes described as “long-haul covid.”

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Rancho Los Amigos National Rehabilitation Center in Downey is one of L.A. County’s four public hospitals and the only one dedicated to rehabilitation. The hospital serves mostly Latino, low-income patients. (Heidi de Marco/Kaiser Health News)

The most common symptoms include fatigue, muscle aches, shortness of breath, insomnia, memory problems, anxiety and heart palpitations. Many health care providers say these symptoms are just as common, perhaps more so, among patients who had only moderate covid.

A survey conducted by members of the Body Politic Covid-19 Support Group showed that among patients who’d experienced mild to moderate covid illness, 91% were still experiencing some of those symptoms an average of 40 days after their initial recovery.

Other studies estimate that about 10% of covid patients will develop some of these prolonged symptoms. With more than 28 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and counting, this post-covid syndrome is a rapidly escalating concern.

“What we can say is that 2 [million] to 3 million Americans at a minimum are going to require long-term rehabilitation as a result of what has happened to this day, and we are just at the beginning of that,” said David Putrino, director of rehabilitation innovation at Mount Sinai Health.

Health care professionals seem guardedly optimistic that most of these patients will fully recover. They note that many of the symptoms are common in those who’ve had certain other viral illnesses, including mononucleosis and cytomegalovirus disease, and that they tend to resolve over time.

“People will recover and will be able to get back to living their regular lives,” said Dr. Catherine Le, co-director of the covid recovery program at Cedars-Sinai. But for the next year or two, she said, “I think we will see people who don’t feel able to go back to the jobs they were doing before.”

Rancho Los Amigos is discussing plans to begin accepting patients who had mild illness and developed post-covid syndrome later, said Lilli Thompson, chief of its rehab therapy division. For now, its main effort is to accommodate all the severe cases being transferred directly from its three public sister hospitals, she said.

The most severely ill patients can have serious neurological, cardiopulmonary and musculoskeletal damage. Most — like Perez — have lost a significant amount of muscle mass. They typically have “post-ICU syndrome,” an assortment of physical, mental and emotional symptoms that can overlap with the symptoms of long-haul covid, making it difficult to tease out how much of their condition is a direct impact of the coronavirus and how much is the more general impact of months in intensive care.

The large, rectangular rehab room where Perez met with his therapists earlier this month is half-gym, half-sitcom set. Part of the space is occupied by weights, video-linked machines that help strengthen hand control and high-tech treadmills, including one that reduces the pull of gravity, enabling patients who are unsteady on their feet to walk without falling. “We tell patients, ‘It’s like walking on the moon,'” Thompson said.

At the other end of the room sits a large-screen TV and a low couch, which helps people practice standing and sitting without undue stress. In a bedroom area, patients relearn to make and unmake their beds. A few feet away, a small office space helps them work on computer and telephone skills they may have lost.

60370d0a61a57b000a816968-eight.jpg
Perez was a cook at a hotel restaurant before he fell ill, so his occupational therapy involves meal preparation. (Heidi de Marco/KHN)

Because Perez was a cook at a hotel restaurant before he fell ill, his occupational therapy involves meal preparation. He stood at the sink, rinsing lettuce, carrots and cucumbers for a salad, then took them over to a table, where he sat down and chopped them with a sharp knife. His knife hand trembled perilously, so occupational therapist Brenda Covarrubias wrapped a weighted band around his wrist to steady him.

“He is working on getting back the skills and endurance he needs for his work, and just for routine daily activities like walking the dogs and walking up steps,” Covarrubias said.

60370d4461a57b000a81696b-eight.jpg
Perez takes a break during his therapy. He could barely breathe when he was admitted to Los Angeles County’s Harbor-UCLA Medical Center in early June of last year. (Heidi de Marco)

Perez, who immigrated to the U.S. from Guadalajara, Mexico, nearly two decades ago, was upbeat and optimistic, even though his voice was faint and his body still a shell of its former self.

When his speech therapist, Katherine Chan, removed his face mask for some breathing exercises, he pointed to the mustache he’d sprouted recently, cheerfully exclaiming he had trimmed it himself. And, he said, “I can change my clothes now.”

Weeks earlier, Perez had mentioned how much he loved dancing before he got sick. So they made it part of his physical therapy.

“Vicente, are you ready to bailar?” Kevin Mui, a student physical therapist, asked him, as another staff member put on a tune by the Colombian cumbia band La Sonora Dinamita.

Slowly, shakily, Perez rose. He anchored himself in an upright position, then began shuffling his feet from front to back and side to side, hips swaying to the rhythm, his face aglow with the sheer joy of being alive.

This story was produced by KHN (Kaiser Health News), which publishes California Healthline, an editorially independent service of the California Health Care Foundation. KHN is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

Hold my hand|دستم را بگیر

A Voice from Iran

180th story

Once upon a time;

A father and her daughter were going from their village to the nearest town to see a doctor. They had to walk across the woods in order to get to the town faster throughout a short cut.

The daughter was sick and the father wanted to get her to the doctor as soon as possible.

On the way, they saw a narrow wooden bridge, hanging and swinging on top of a deep valley.

The father said: “Hold on to my hand, while we are passing this dangerous bridge.”

The daughter replied: “I won’t hold on to your hand, father. You hold my hand.”

The father said: “What you said, was the repeat of what I said, I don’t understand?”

The daughter replied: “There is a huge difference. If I hold on to your hand, I may release it in any circumstances, but if you…

View original post 62 more words

Les Yanomami, y compris maintenant de jeunes enfants, meurent du Covid-19 propagé par des orpailleurs!

The Yanomami, now including young children, are dying from Covid-19 spread by artisanal miners!

Barbara Crane Navarro

Maison communale Yanomami dans la forêt amazonienne – photo: MSM

« Maintenant, nous savons d’où viennent ces mauvaises émanations. C’est la fumée métallique, la fumée épidémique, et c’est vraiment notre ennemi. Dans le passé, ces mauvaises choses restaient enterrées et nos ancêtres n’étaient pas constamment malades comme nous le sommes aujourd’hui. Pourtant, dans leur ignorance, les blancs ont commencé à arracher frénétiquement les minéraux du sol pour les cuire dans leurs usines… ils libèrent la vapeur maléfique… cela finit par nous rendre malades. Son poison est redoutable. Nous ne savons pas comment le combattre. C’est pourquoi nous sommes si inquiets. » extrait du chapitre «Or Cannibale» du livre du porte-parole et chaman Yanomami Davi Kopenawa La chute du ciel

Mères et enfants Yanomami recherchant des soins médicaux – photo: Globo

Neuf enfants Yanomami présentant des symptômes de Covid-19 sont décédés en janvier. Júnior Hekurari Yanomami, chef de Condisi-YY…

View original post 305 more words

Lawyers have found the parents of 105 separated migrant children in past month

The steering committee of pro-bono lawyers and advocates working on reunification said it had yet to find the parents of 506 children, down from 611 on Jan. 14, the last time it reported data to a federal judge overseeing the process.

The lawyers said the parents of about 322 of the 506 children are believed to have been deported, making it more difficult to find them. The lawyers are not required by the judge to say how many of the parents and children have been reunited.

Source: Lawyers have found the parents of 105 separated migrant children in past month

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