Category Archives: News to use

Useful news for all to advance knowledge of the world and how it works

20 Quotes About Being + Having Enough | Leverage Ambition — leverage ambition

Failure will never overtake me if my determination to succeed is strong enough. Og Mandino When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor. Elon Musk Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world. Archimedes […]

20 Quotes About Being + Having Enough | Leverage Ambition — leverage ambition

US, EU diplomats meet to salvage Iranian nuclear pact – Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting with European allies Thursday to discuss ways to revive the Iranian nuclear agreement abandoned by the United States in 2018.

The foreign ministers of the E3 — Germany, the United Kingdom and France — met in Paris on Thursday, with Blinken participating virtually. Their meeting comes as Iran prepares to limit snap inspections by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if sanctions aren’t lifted by next week.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned Thursday that talks “are being significantly complicated at the moment because Iran obviously does not seek de-escalation but escalation — and this is playing with fire.”

“The more pressure is applied, the more difficult it gets to find a political solution,” Maas said.

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/02/blinken-e3-germany-france-uk-nuclear-deal-iran-sanctions.html#ixzz6mqr0jzP3 Source: US, EU diplomats meet to salvage Iranian nuclear pact – Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

Flights carrying ‘seafood’ between China and Myanmar fuel speculation about Beijing’s support for the military coup

Activists are concerned about possible Chinese involvement in a proposed Cybersecurity Bill

Screen shot from HK Citizen News’ video news report on Myanmar protests against military coup.

The Chinese government has so far taken no official stand on the military coup by Myanmar’s military on February 1, though the fact that China blocked the UN Security Council’s condemnation of the junta has led pro-democracy activists in Myanmar to believe that Beijing is backing the coup for geopolitical reasons.

Myanmar’s citizens began protesting in front of the Chinese Embassy days after the coup took place, and reports of aircraft flying between Kunming (China) and Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city, have fueled suspicions that the Chinese government is providing support for the military government’s efforts to take control of the country’s internet.

Netizens have also begun using hashtags such as #ShameOnYouChina and #ChinaHelpMilitaryCoupForOwnBenefit on social media to condemn China’s alleged actions.

Twitter user @Ellen5461 posted a few photos of a protest in front of the Chinese Embassy. Some of the placards shown in the photos bear slogans  written in Chinese, saying “Stand by Myanmar, do not support dictatorship”:

Myanmar citizen protesting against the military coup in front of China Embassy.

WE DON’T WANT DICTATORSHIP.#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Feb12Coup pic.twitter.com/5doii1iGS3

🇲🇲Save Myanmar 🇲🇲 (@Ellen4561) February 12, 2021

@Alicebrosel posted a photo of another protester dressed in Chinese costume holding a placard saying “Myanmar military dictatorship is made in China”.

Protesters in-front of Chinese Embassy in Yangon today, dressed up as Justice Pao, taiwan famous tv serious, to show Myanmar ppl rejection on how China has been supporting on Myanmar Juntas #ShameOnYouChina #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar pic.twitter.com/Lk852IOmhY

— Yu Mo Win (@Alicebrose1) February 14, 2021

Unverified claims about China’s backing of the Myanmar coup started circulating soon after the coup, as all Chinese state-affiliated media outlets was using the phrase “a major cabinet reshuffle” to describe the military takeover of Myanmar’s civilian government.

After China’s blocking of the UN Security Council from condemning the military coup on 3 of February, and reports the daily flights between Kunming, China and Yangon and raised suspicions that China was sending experts and equipment to assist the military, the Chinese Embassy issued a statement on Facebook in response to the accusations of interference. According to the statement, the planes were regular cargo flights carrying seafood. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin also said he had not heard of any arrangement involving the sending of experts and equipment to Yangon.

The answer from the embassy sounded so implausible to many that the term “seafood” went viral on social media. Kyaw Win of the Burma Human Rights Network highlighted the meaning of the viral usage “seafood” on social media.

Despite YGN Int’l airport is closed dubious flight from Kunming, China to Yangon have several flights daily. Chinese Ambassador said these flights carrying seafood from China for the embassy. So we change the name of Chinese embassy to a “seafood market”. #Burma @benedictrogers pic.twitter.com/Yovz7nEMwx

— Kyaw Win (@kyawwin78) February 17, 2021

Myanmar citizens are also concerned about the introduction of a Cybersecurity Bill by the military government that empowers authorities to block websites, remove content, and charge individuals for spreading misinformation. As China is the world’s top expert in controlling and censoring web traffic, many see the country as playing a key role in the Bill’s implementation. Twitter user @ruddy5702 said:

⚠CHINA SUPPORT MILITARY COUP ⚠

The military is about to enact new cyber law to control the people’s online usage. Basically, they don’t have technologies and tools to initiate that, and so that is where China will take part#ShameonyouChina #Feb16Coup#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar pic.twitter.com/f81wAwXySV

— Ruddy (@ruddy5702) February 16, 2021

Photos showing “seafood” cargo arriving late night in Yangon went viral online:

Huge seafood arrived from China to Yangon! #ChineseCargoYGN #ShameonyouChina #militarycoupinMyanmar pic.twitter.com/NRPmlEWHli

— Nantigks (@nantigks) February 11, 2021

Myanmar citizens’ access to the internet has been periodically disrupted since the coup took place on February 1. However, starting on February 14, near-total internet shutdowns have been reported by digital rights organization NetBlocks between 1am and 9am:

⚠ Confirmed: A near-total internet shutdown is in effect in #Myanmar as of 1 a.m. local time; real-time network data show national connectivity at just 14% of ordinary levels following state-ordered information blackout; incident ongoing 📉

📰Background: https://t.co/Jgc20OBk27 pic.twitter.com/wWWVzb0c0G

— NetBlocks (@netblocks) February 14, 2021

There is also speculation that the recurring power outages experienced in the country in the past few days are related to the testing and setup of Myanmar’s version of The Great Firewall. Language decoding issues faced by some Myanmar netizens have also reinforced this idea, as noted by user @blahbla69235153:

Here Sir, many people are already facing this problem. When we send message to MPT 7979 (Mobile Operators) in Eglish , they reply in Eng but when we send in Burmese they reply in Chinese. pic.twitter.com/KHFpLT1iww

— hninayewai (@blahbla69235153) February 16, 2021

Amidst criticisms from Myanmar and from the international community, Beijing’s ambassador to Myanmar, Chen Hai, denied that China had been “informed in advance of the political change” and said that the current situation was “absolutely not what China wants to see.”

Written by Oiwan Lam

Let’s Clear This Up: What Does 95% Covid-19 Vaccine Efficacy Actually Mean?

Olliaro explains with some simple math:

If we vaccinated a population of 100,000 and protected 95% of them, that would leave 5000 individuals diseased over 3 months, which is almost the current overall COVID-19 case rate in the UK. Rather, a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100,000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99.95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months).

And of course if you vaccinate widely, it becomes a compounding situation because the virus just runs out of people to infect.

In popular press and social media, there’s been a misunderstanding of what is actually meant when scientists say that the Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 vaccines have an efficacy of 94-95%. It does not mean that 95% of vaccinated people are protected from infection — these vaccines are better than that. Dr. Piero Olliaro explains in a letter to The Lancet:

The mRNA-based Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were shown to have 94-95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, calculated as 100 x (1 minus the attack rate with vaccine divided by the attack rate with placebo). It means that in a population such as the one enrolled in the trials, with a cumulated COVID-19 attack rate over a period of 3 months of about 1% without a vaccine, we would expect roughly 0.05% of vaccinated people would get diseased.

Another way to put it: you’re 20 times less likely to get Covid-19 with a vaccine than without. (And again, data indicates these are safe vaccines.) Olliaro explains with some simple math:

If we vaccinated a population of 100,000 and protected 95% of them, that would leave 5000 individuals diseased over 3 months, which is almost the current overall COVID-19 case rate in the UK. Rather, a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100,000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99.95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months).

And of course if you vaccinate widely, it becomes a compounding situation because the virus just runs out of people to infect.

Tags: COVID-19   mathematics   medicine   Moderna   Pfizer   Piero Olliaro   science   vaccines

Keeping up with plant-based meat alternatives

I’ve been trying to keep up with the news on plant-based meat alternatives.   This isn’t easy.  There’s a lot going on.

Plant-based meat politics

Plant-based science news

Plant-based business news

Comment

This is a big industry with many questions about quality, degree of processing, and effects on the environment still to be settled.  And these are just the plant-based products.  Next week, I’ll post a collection of articles on the cell-based meat alternatives.  These are not yet on the market (except in Singapore) but also look like big business.  Stay tuned.

Mink farms a continuing Covid risk to humans and wildlife, warn EU experts

5760.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8

Health experts call for regular testing of staff and animals after coronavirus found at 400 breeding units across Europe

All mink farms are at risk of becoming infected with Covid-19 and spreading the virus, and staff and animals should be regularly tested, EU disease and food safety experts said on Thursday.

Mink are highly susceptible to coronavirus, which spreads rapidly in intensive farms that often breed thousands of animals in open housing caged systems (outdoor wire cages covered with a roof). Humans are the most likely initial source of infection.

Denmark, the world’s largest exporter of mink fur, announced that it would cull up to 15 million mink in November, after discovering a mutated variant of the virus that scientists feared might have jeopardised the effectiveness of future vaccines.

Continue reading…

Texas leaders failed to heed warnings that left the state’s power grid vulnerable to winter extremes, experts say

Powerline infrastructure in San Marcos on Feb. 16, 2021.

Energy and policy experts said Texas’ decision not to require equipment upgrades to better withstand extreme winter temperatures, and choice to operate mostly isolated from other grids in the U.S. left power system unprepared for the winter crisis.

Credit: Jordan Vonderhaar for The Texas Tribune

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Millions of Texans have gone days without power or heat in subfreezing temperatures brought on by snow and ice storms. Limited regulations on companies that generate power and a history of isolating Texas from federal oversight help explain the crisis, energy and policy experts told The Texas Tribune.

While Texas Republicans were quick to pounce on renewable energy and to blame frozen wind turbines, the natural gas, nuclear and coal plants that provide most of the state’s energy also struggled to operate during the storm. Officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the energy grid operator for most of the state, said that the state’s power system was simply no match for the deep freeze.

“Nuclear units, gas units, wind turbines, even solar, in different ways — the very cold weather and snow has impacted every type of generator,” said Dan Woodfin, a senior director at ERCOT.

Energy and policy experts said Texas’ decision not to require equipment upgrades to better withstand extreme winter temperatures, and choice to operate mostly isolated from other grids in the U.S. left power system unprepared for the winter crisis.

Policy observers blamed the power system failure on the legislators and state agencies who they say did not properly heed the warnings of previous storms or account for more extreme weather events warned of by climate scientists. Instead, Texas prioritized the free market.

“Clearly we need to change our regulatory focus to protect the people, not profits,” said Tom “Smitty” Smith, a now-retired former director of Public Citizen, an Austin-based consumer advocacy group who advocated for changes after in 2011 when Texas faced a similar energy crisis.

“Instead of taking any regulatory action, we ended up getting guidelines that were unenforceable and largely ignored in [power companies’] rush for profits,” he said.

It is possible to “winterize” natural gas power plants, natural gas production, wind turbines and other energy infrastructure, experts said, through practices like insulating pipelines. These upgrades help prevent major interruptions in other states with regularly cold weather.

Lessons from 2011

In 2011, Texas faced a very similar storm that froze natural gas wells and affected coal plants and wind turbines, leading to power outages across the state. A decade later, Texas power generators have still not made all the investments necessary to prevent plants from tripping offline during extreme cold, experts said.

Woodfin, of ERCOT, acknowledged that there’s no requirement to prepare power infrastructure for such extremely low temperatures. “Those are not mandatory, it’s a voluntary guideline to decide to do those things,” he said. “There are financial incentives to stay online, but there is no regulation at this point.”

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which has some authority to regulate power generators in the U.S., is currently developing mandatory standards for “winterizing” energy infrastructure, a spokesperson said.

Texas politicians and regulators were warned after the 2011 storm that more “winterizing” of power infrastructure was necessary, a report by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation shows. The large number of units that tripped offline or couldn’t start during that storm “demonstrates that the generators did not adequately anticipate the full impact of the extended cold weather and high winds,” regulators wrote at the time. More thorough preparation for cold weather could have prevented the outages, the report said.

“This should have been addressed in 2011 by the Legislature after that market meltdown, but there was no substantial follow up,” by state politicians or regulators, said Ed Hirs, an energy fellow and economics professor at the University of Houston. “They skipped on down the road with business as usual.”

ERCOT officials said that some generators implemented new winter practices after the freeze a decade ago, and new voluntary “best practices” were adopted. Woodfin said that during subsequent storms, such as in 2018, it appeared that those efforts worked. But he said this storm was even more extreme than regulators anticipated based on models developed after the 2011 storm. He acknowledged that any changes made were “not sufficient to keep these generators online,” during this storm.

After temperatures plummeted and snow covered large parts of the state Sunday night, ERCOT warned increased demand might lead to short-term, rolling blackouts. Instead, huge portions of the largest cities in Texas went dark and have remained without heat or power for days. On Tuesday, nearly 60% of Houston households and businesses were without power. Of the total installed capacity to the electric grid, about 40% went offline during the storm, Woodfin said.

Climate wake-up call

Climate scientists in Texas agree with ERCOT leaders that this week’s storm was unprecedented in some ways. They also say it’s evidence that Texas is not prepared to handle an increasing number of more volatile and more extreme weather events.

“We cannot rely on our past to guide our future,” said Dev Niyogi, a geosciences professor at the University of Texas at Austin who previously served as the state climatologist for Indiana. He noted that previous barometers are becoming less useful as states see more intense weather covering larger areas for prolonged periods of time. He said climate scientists want infrastructure design to consider a “much larger spectrum of possibilities” rather than treating these storms as a rarity, or a so-called “100-year event.”

Katharine Hayhoe, a leading climate scientist at Texas Tech University, highlighted a 2018 study that showed how a warming Arctic is creating more severe polar vortex events. “It’s a wake up call to say, ‘What if these are getting more frequent?’” Hayhoe said. “Moving forward, that gives us even more reason to be more prepared in the future.”

Still, Hayhoe and Niyogi acknowledged there’s uncertainty about the connection between climate change and cold air outbreaks from the Arctic.

Other Texas officials looked beyond ERCOT. Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins argued that the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the oil and gas industry — a remit that includes natural gas wells and pipelines — prioritized commercial customers over residents by not requiring equipment to be better equipped for cold weather. The RRC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Other states require you to have cold weather packages on your generation equipment and require you to use, either through depth or through materials, gas piping that is less likely to freeze,” Jenkins said.

Texas’ electricity market is also deregulated, meaning that no one company owns all the power plants, transmission lines and distribution networks. Instead, several different companies generate and transmit power, which they sell on the wholesale market to yet more players. Those power companies in turn are the ones that sell to homes and businesses. Policy experts disagree on whether a different structure would have helped Texas navigate these outages. “I don’t think deregulation itself is necessarily the thing to blame here,” said Josh Rhodes, a research associate at University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute.

History of isolation

Texas’ grid is also mostly isolated from other areas of the country, a set up designed to avoid federal regulation. It has some connectivity to Mexico and to the Eastern U.S. grid, but those ties have limits on what they can transmit. The Eastern U.S. is also facing the same winter storm that is creating a surge in power demand. That means that Texas has been unable to get much help from other areas.

“If you’re going to say you can handle it by yourself, step up and do it,” said Hirs, the UH energy fellow, of the state’s pursuit of an independent grid with a deregulated market. “That’s the incredible failure.”

Rhodes, of UT Austin, said Texas policy makers should consider more connections to the rest of the country. That, he acknowledged, could come at a higher financial cost — and so will any improvements to the grid to prevent future disasters. There’s an open question as to whether Texas leadership will be willing to fund, or politically support, any of these options.

“We need to have a conversation about if we believe that we’re going to have more weather events like this,” Rhodes said. “On some level, it comes down to if you want a more resilient grid, we can build it, it will just cost more money. What are you willing to pay? We’re going to have to confront that.”

Texas Tech University, University of Texas at Austin and University of Houston have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

14291883.gif