Counting the global COVID-19 dead – The Lancet

Excess deaths are a proxy for the mortality effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The key assumption is that increases in all-cause mortality during peak weeks of COVID-19 compared to pre-pandemic periods are nearly all due to the infection, even if SARS-CoV-2 infection was not confirmed. The validity of this method is supported in part by documenting modest reductions (negative excess) in overall mortality in selected east Asian countries that effectively prevented the original wave from March to June, 2020.

The difference of 3 million deaths across the three models is far from trivial. However, given that WHO imprimatur carries substantial influence on countries, a more relevant question is whether WHO estimates are credible. About half of WHO’s estimate is derived from observed data, the other half from modelled data. IHME combines six different approaches and applies complex methods to create estimates for various countries. Yet IHME’s method yields implausibly narrow uncertainty intervals. The Economist applies machine learning, using many covariates, and has appropriately wider uncertainty intervals; like WHO, it makes its model fully open source. In high-income countries, much of the discrepancy between excess and reported COVID-19 deaths occurred during the first viral wave, from March to June, 2020, when SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths swept through nursing homes. Italy, for example, has robust and rapid reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and WHO estimated 161 000 excess deaths, as did Italian researchers.

By contrast, IHME

and The Economist estimated 259 000 deaths and 192 000 deaths, respectively. That at least 9 million COVID-19 deaths were missed by official reports raises a few key issues.

Source: Counting the global COVID-19 dead – The Lancet

Shanghai’s life-saving efforts against the current omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic – The Lancet

As of May 4, 2022, among the 503 people who died with or from COVID-19, only 25 patients had received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccination rate for the deceased patients was only 4·97%. If no strict public health measures were taken, such as large scale viral nucleic acid and antigen screening, quarantine of infected cases and close contacts in shelter hospitals and hotels, respectively, and lockdown of districts with severe outbreak, the number of severe to critical cases and the resultant death toll could be high among the older people without vaccination. The strict and comprehensive pandemic control strategies in Shanghai are therefore actually to reduce the number of people infected and to provide early diagnosis and appropriate treatment for severe COVID-19 so that the case fatality rate can be minimised, and to buy time for full vaccination coverage. Source: Shanghai’s life-saving efforts against the current omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic – The Lancet

Jeopardy

De malinha pronta

Reprise

Shall I stay or shall I go?
Shall I hide or shall I show?
Shall I say or shall I silence?
Shall I listen or shall I ignore?
Shall I wait or shall I move on?
Shall I live in the past or shall I run into the future?
Shall I care or shall I dare?
Shall I be unique or shall I compare?
Shall I do or shall I don’t?
Shall I be the guide or shall I be guided?
Shall I love or shall I be loved?
Shall I fall or shall I fly?
Shall I laugh or shall I cry?
Shall I be strong or shall I break into pieces?
Shall I give up or shall I resist?
Shall I erase myself or shall I exist?
Life is not always a long, peaceful road
Not everything is either black or white
We should enjoy the present

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Open Thread | Still More COVID News | 3CHICSPOLITICO

ONE MILLION COVID DEATHS.

I will never get past my belief that..
90-95% of the last 500,000 COVID DEATHS

DID NOT NEED TO HAPPEN.

90-95%

DID NOT NEED TO HAPPEN.

46 and his Administration have put the COVID Vaccine on practically every other corner in America.

But, the same people who won’t mask up…
Are the same people who yelled OPEN THE ECONOMY…
Are the same people who won’t get vaccinated…

But, somehow, this is supposed to be President Biden’s fault?
No, I don’t think so.
Let’s get Moderna approved for children 6 – 5 years, so that vulnerable population can get vaccinated.
Get boosters and second boosters for all age groups, 5 and up.
Get more advertising of the success of new antiviral treatment for COVID
Keep on giving home tests.
Keep on wearing the KN-95s
We need more research into long-term COVID.
We need to discuss honestly, about the disabled from long-term COVID.

Source: Open Thread | Still More COVID News | 3CHICSPOLITICO

Palestinian Renowned Journalist, devoted mother, beloved wife, adored friend assassinated while on duty with a bullet shot directly in her head. If this is how journalists are targeted, what is really happening on the grounds of Jenin? We are all living aimlessly until We become Shireen. This is as sad , as horrible , as painful , as heartbreaking as the assassination of Nizar. No place for truth on this land. — نادية حرحش

Palestinian Renowned Journalist, devoted mother, beloved wife, adored friend assassinated while on duty with a bullet shot directly in her head. If this is how journalists are targeted, what is really happening on the grounds of Jenin? 31 more words

Palestinian Renowned Journalist, devoted mother, beloved wife, adored friend assassinated while on duty with a bullet shot directly in her head. If this is how journalists are targeted, what is really happening on the grounds of Jenin? We are all living aimlessly until We become Shireen. This is as sad , as horrible , as painful , as heartbreaking as the assassination of Nizar. No place for truth on this land. — نادية حرحش

Good People Doing Good Things — Mister Rogers

Filosofa's Word

I was scouring my usual sources for a few good people to write about today and I did find some, but they will have to wait until next week’s post, for during my search something popped up on my radar and by the time I finished reading it, I had tears and knew this would be my good people story this week.

We all knew that Fred Rogers, star of Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood, was a good guy.  But this one story shows just how good, just how caring an individual he was.

It all started in early 1987 when …

A mother called into PBS, asking if Mr. Rogers could send an autograph to her daughter. She was suffering from seizures and set to have brain surgery. When Fred Rogers heard about it, he flew to see her in the hospital rather than merely sending an autograph.

When Beth Usher…

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Marii Freire Pereira

Pensamentos.me/VEM comigo!

É preciso falar sobre violência contra a mulher. Apesar de muito avançarmos cultural e socialmente falando, o problema é uma realidade que não se pode jogar para “baixo do tapete ” e fingir que ele não existe. Não, ele existe e continua fazendo as suas vítimas. A violência não escolhe classe social ou cor.
A violência doméstica e familiar, ela faz parte de um processo histórico. É uma brutalidade cometida contra a mulher há séculos.
Quem conhece a história da Maria da Penha, sabe que o caso dela, foi uma verdadeira ” via-crúcis “. Só após diversas pressões internacionais e nacionais, foi que o Brasil passou a levar este problema a sério. A Lei Maria da Penha, é um norte na vida de toda mulher que vive em situação de violência. Então, é preciso falar, assim como é preciso “encorajar” toda vítima a denunciar o seu agressor.

Marii Freire Pereira

View original post 10 more words

Big meat is gobbling up fake meat companies | Environment | The Guardian

Cargill has been active in the sector, investing in lab-grown meat company Aleph Farms and creating its own plant proteins. Tyson Foods is selling plant-based meats under its Raised & Rooted brand and has invested in several plant-based and lab-grown meat companies.

JBS, the world’s biggest meat company, last year bought lab-grown meat firm BioTech Foods and also Dutch plant-based meat company Vivera, which has the corporate tagline: “Life is better when you eat less meat.”

“They’re covering their bases because this is an area that’s growing very quickly,” Howard said. “These companies have gotten big and powerful by using every strategy they can.”

Source: Big meat is gobbling up fake meat companies | Environment | The Guardian