Prof Calum Semple, who was at the Sage meeting on 21 September, said the three tier system had come too late and he believes that a short national lockdown could be needed within weeks.
Sage is also damning of the government’s supposedly world beating Test and Trace system.
Test and Trace is at the heart of the government’s plans – a way of avoiding the need for a national lockdown by targeting restrictions where the virus is.
Sage says “this system is having a marginal impact on transmission” and that unless it’s resources grow faster than the epidemic then Test and Trace “will further decline in the future”.
The documents say a two-week circuit break in October could drive cases down, essentially rewinding the clock by 28 days. This could buy time for Test and Trace to catch up.