Opinion | An Open Letter to President Trump – The New York Times

The nation craves a plan, not hunches.

Step 1: First, you need to call for a 50-state sheltering-in-place/social-distancing program. While the experts differ on how long that national lockdown should be — two weeks, four weeks, eight weeks, whatever the C.D.C. recommends, I say — they virtually all agree that it is needed to manifestly slow the spread of the coronavirus, to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed and to buy us the critical time we need to collect the data required to inform all future decision-making.

Step 2: We use this period of lockdown to gather as much data as possible about who has the coronavirus, where they live, what their ages and degrees of illness are, what the mortality rate is at what ages, and what other ailments or immune deficiencies they may have.

Step 3: This data can then be the foundation of what Katz calls “the pivot.” Once we have slowed the transmission of the coronavirus nationally — and developed a stratified national risk map — we can then, on the basis of that data, said Katz, begin phasing people back into the workplace to get the economy humming again.