Justice Obstructed: Senate Confirms Only 8th Judge of 2015

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Amelia Bell, Fellow

Yesterday, the Senate voted 95-2 to confirm Ann Donnelly to serve as a judge on the District Court for the Eastern District of New York. Donnelly is highly qualified for this position, after spending close to 25 years as a prosecutor in the New York County District Attorney’s Office, serving as a judge on the New York State Court of Claims, and most recently as a trial judge in the Kings County Supreme Court. She will make a great addition to the Eastern District of New York.

capitol_000014985993small.jpgHowever, Donnelly is only the eighth judge the Senate has confirmed this year even though 30 judgeships have been vacant so long that they have been declared official judicial emergency vacancies. Donnelly’s confirmation filled one of those judicial emergency vacancies, but dozens of other vacancies unjustifiably remain. Just in New York, there are two judicial nominees that were approved by the Judiciary Committee with no opposition, yet requests for final votes on those nominees have inexplicably been denied.

So while Ann Donnelly’s confirmation is great news for the Eastern District of New York, many other courts and the people who rely on them for justice are left to suffer the consequences of unfilled judgeships and overburdened courts while the Senate continues to inexcusably obstruct the confirmation process.

Regarding that 99.9% Probability Of A > M5.0 L.A. Earthquake Study

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 Credit USGS – Probability of the `Big One’ over 30 years

 

 

# 10,646

 

Earthquake predictions are a dime a dozen on the Internet, and if you add in killer asteroids, the approach of planet Nibiru, and extraterrestrial invasions, even a little cheaper on Youtube.  Once a week someone posts a video about the imminent eruption of Yellowstone, a catastrophic pole shift, or a  mega-tsunami coming to your neighborhood soon. 

And on a cosmic timescale, all of these are possible (except the nonsense about Nibiru, which doesn’t exist).

Despite this inane chatter, there are serious scientists out there who are looking for NEOs (Near Earth Objects), who study fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic field, and who are attempting to pick up geological signals that can `predict’ earthquakes.  

 

It isn’t all rubbish.

 

So when a study, prepared by scientists at California’s JPL, appearing in a respected journal like Earth and Space Science, predicting a 99.9% probability of a M5.0 magnitude (or greater) quake in Los Angeles over the next three years, the media – and other scientists – take notice.

 

The full study may be read at:

 

Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake

Andrea Donnellan1,2, Lisa Grant Ludwig3, Jay W. Parker1, John B. Rundle4, Jun Wang5, Marlon Pierce5,
Geoffrey Blewitt6, and Scott Hensley1

Abstract

Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike-slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike-slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north-south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left-lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still-locked deeper structures. A future M6.1–6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping.

 

Although you have to read through a heavy dose of science and math, the money quote can be found near the end, where the authors write:

 

The calculated probability for a M ≥ 6 earthquake within a circle of radius 100 km, and over the 3 years following 1 April 2015, is 35%. For a M ≥ 5 earthquake within a circle of radius 100 km, and over the 3 years following 1 April 2015, the probability is 99.9%.

 

Before anyone gets too shook up (sorry, couldn’t resist), over the past 81 years Los Angeles has seen 32M5.0 quakes, and the USGS already had set the three-year risk of that size quake at a respectable 85%. This report ups the ante, but either way, the risks of seeing a M5.0 quake in L.A. during that time frame are pretty high.

 

A 99.9% certainty is a pretty bold prediction, however, and the USGS has posted a statement on their Facebook page urging caution in interpreting these results.

 

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

11 hrs ·

USGS Statement on JPL La Habra Study in the news:

This paper claims a 99.9% probability of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or greater occurring in the next 3 years within a large area of Southern California without providing a clear description of how these numbers were derived. The area—a 100 km radius circle centered on the city of La Habra—is a known seismically active area. For this same area, the community developed and accepted model of earthquake occurrence, “UCERF3”, which is the basis of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps, gives a 3-year probability of 85%. In other words, the accepted random chance of a M5 or greater in this area in 3 years is 85%, independent of the analysis in this paper.

While the earthquake forecast presented in this paper has been published in the online journal Earth and Space Sciences, it has not yet been examined by the long-established committees that evaluate earthquake forecasts and predictions made by scientists. These committees, the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, which advises the California Office of Emergency Services, and the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, which advises the U.S. Geological Survey, were established to provide expert, independent assessment of earthquake predictions.

The earthquake rate implied by the 99.9% probability is significantly higher than observed at any time previously in Southern California, and the lack of details on the method of analysis makes a critical assessment of this approach very difficult. Therefore, the USGS does not consider the analysis presented in this paper a reason to change our assessment of the hazard.

http://on.doi.gov/1GjakvD

 

 

None of this falls in my wheelhouse, so I can offer no opinion other than to say – while the consequences aren’t as dire – the difference between these two estimates is essentially the difference between playing Russian Roulette with 6 rounds in the chamber (JPL), or only 5 (USGS).  Either way, you’re going to wish you had your insurance premiums paid up.

 

In this case, `insurance’ is preparedness.  

 

And while this JPL prediction centers on Los Angeles, a recent  USGS study published in the journal Earthquake Spectra, nearly doubles – to 143 million – the number of Americans who live or work in areas susceptible to potentially damaging ground shaking  (see USGS: Nearly Half Of U.S. Population Exposed to Potentially Damaging Earthquakes).

 

Every home should have no less than a 72-hour supply of emergency food and water, for all of its occupants (including pets!). 

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Basic kit : NWS radio, First Aid Kit, Lanterns, Water & Food & cash

 

This is a bare minimum, here in the United States many agencies and organizations recommend that households work towards having a 10-day supply of food, water, and emergency supplies on hand.

In When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough, I highlighted  a colorful, easy-to-follow, 100 page `survival guide’ released by Los Angeles County, that covers everything from earthquake and tsunami preparedness, to getting ready for a pandemic.

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While admittedly California-threat specific, this useful guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

 

For more on earthquake risks, and preparedness, you may wish to revisit:

Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’

California Quakes : Concrete Concerns

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

USGS/OGS Joint Statement On Increased Earthquake Threat To Oklahoma

Bangladesh – Threatening email orders Bangladeshi media to fire women

Reporters Without Borders condemns the threats against news media and bloggers contained in a email that was sent to a score of Bangladeshi print and broadcast media outlets on 19 October, and calls on the authorities to take concrete measures to protect all those targeted.

Sent by Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), a militant Islamist group that has claimed the murders of four bloggers this year, and signed by a person identifying himself as ABT spokesman Abdullah bin Salim, the Bengali-language email constituted a clear threat to all media that fail to adhere strictly to Islamic law.

The email included a demand for news media to fire all female employees and to refrain from publishing any ads that show women or any photos that include a woman not wearing a burqa.

Telling media outlets to fire women employees is appalling, especially as women journalists are already in the minority in news organizations and are exposed to additional difficulties and threats because they are women,” said Benjamin Ismaïl, the head of the Reporters Without Borders Asia-Pacific desk.

The authorities must take action to prevent women journalists being silenced. At the same time, bloggers are still being threatened so the government must be especially vigilant and end the culpable passivity that has already resulted in the deaths of four bloggers since the start of the year. These new threats must be investigated and the investigation must make rapid progress leading to the arrest of this extremist group’s members.

The email also included death threats against 15 bloggers – nine living abroad and six living in Bangladesh – said to have participated in an “anti-Islam campaign” on social networks, as well as all those who “support atheists” and all those whose “freedom of expression breaks the limit we have set.

Naming three of the four bloggers murdered this year – Niloy Neel, Washiqur Rahman and Avijit Roy – and referring menacingly to their fate, the email warned that “the consequences will be severe if you do not walk the path of Islam.”

The email continued with a series of directives banning any criticism or negative publicity about the “soldiers of Islam” and any content contrary to the Sharia. Media outlets criticizing those responsible for the death of an “atheist” would be regarded as encouraging atheism and would “face the consequences,” the message added.

Imran H. Sarker, one of Bangladesh’s most popular bloggers, with about a million followers on social networks, received similar death threats on 17 October from a Facebook account apparently linked to the Islamic State.

All of the bloggers murdered since the start of 2015 – Washiqur Rahman, Ananta Bijoy Das, Niloy Neel and Avijit Roy, the founder of the Mukto-Mona discussion website – criticized religious fundamentalism and advocated tolerance, free speech and freedom of thought in their blogs.

Bangladesh is ranked 146th out of 180 countries in the 2015 Reporters Without Borders press freedom index.

Netanyahu’s Hitler Speech is nothing new | Hummus For Thought

Moshe Zimmermann said the comments essentially made Netanyahu a Holocaust denier. “Any attempt to deflect the burden from Hitler to others is a form of Holocaust denial,” he told The Associated Press. Senior Palestinian official Saeb Erekat said that “Netanyahu hates Palestinians so much that he is willing to absolve Hitler of the murder of 6 million Jews.”Netanyahu’s claim does not need debunking. It never happened. Pure fiction. But that wasn’t the point. The point was to try and link the fate of the Jews under European fascists (and under so-called Western democracies I might add) with Palestinian resistance to Zionist Settler Colonialism. It is such a preposterous position that one can only react to it in disgust.

Source: Netanyahu’s Hitler Speech is nothing new | Hummus For Thought

Netanyhau: Hitler Only Wanted to Expel Jews, but Jerusalem Mufti Told Him to Burn Them – Israel News – Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News Source

Searching for excuse to exterminate Palestinians or give leave to extremists to go on killing spree!?!

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sparked public uproar when on Wednesday he claimed that the Mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini, was the one who planted the idea of the extermination of European Jewry in Adolf Hitler’s mind. The Nazi ruler, Netanyahu said, had no intention of killing the Jews, but only to expel them.

Source: Netanyhau: Hitler Only Wanted to Expel Jews, but Jerusalem Mufti Told Him to Burn Them – Israel News – Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News Source

Former NY Nazi Town Still Requires Residents Be Of “German Extraction”

Former NY Nazi Town Still Requires Residents Be Of "German Extraction" Prior to the U.S. entering WWII, there was a fairly strong Nazi presence in certain pockets of New York, and the most Nazi of them all was Yaphank, a “pro-Hitler community” located in the middle of Long Island. The streets there were named after Hitler, Goering, and Goebbels. There were Nazi parades marching through quaint suburbia. And it was home to “Camp Siegfried,” where children imitated the Hitler Youth. [ more › ]

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